Monday, December 29, 2003

Glenn Reynolds opines in this post that the "assault weapons" ban will sunset.

I wish he were correct, but it still remains up in the air.

I refer you to this post for some background on the political theories concerning the ban, look at this post for some information on the 100 co-sponsors for the McCarthy-Conyers bill to make permanent & strengthen the "assault weapons" ban, & look at this post for how the Senate & House break down in terms of supporting or opposing gun control bills.

Bottom line is that there are enough votes in the Senate & probably enough votes in the House to pass any version of an extension of the "assault weapons" ban. Veto-proof isn't a concern as Bush promised to sign it into law & Bush always keeps his promises no matter how much it infringes on our Rights (In all fairness I'd have to go back before Roosevelt - not the good Roosevelt; FDR - to find a president who would stand up for the Constitution despite political pressure).

So what it comes down to is whether or not any of the bills that would make permanent & strengthen the "assault weapons" ban will come to a vote. If it does I'm pretty sure it'd pass.

But most people assume it won't come to a vote. This is mainly because of House Majority Leader Tom Delay (R-Texas) said it wouldn't come up for a vote. This was said in May.

But House Speaker Dennis Hastert )R-Illinois) said a few days later that he hadn't yet decided whether the House would vote on renewing the ban. "'I need to have some discussions with the president and (Republican) leadership before I make that decision" were his words.

So we're by no means out of the woods yet. If Hastert brings any one of the "assault weapons" ban bills to the floor, it's likely to pass. The Senate's a done deal. & Bush will betray us yet again. The courts? Heh. SCOTUS has been ducking direct second amendment questions for almost 54 years. I doubt they'd grow some spine if someone challenged the "assault weapons" ban again.

I wish I could share Prof. Reynolds' optimism, but I fear I know too much about what's going on.

Here's the section of my archives that deal with proposed bans. Most of the stuff from halfway down to the end of that section deals with the "assault weapons" ban & proposals to renew it. It's not going to be an uplifting read, but if you would know all the details (at least all that I could find) feel free to browse. Of course if you see any flaws with my reasoning or know something to be different than I stated it, please drop me a line. I want to be wrong about this.

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